"Personality can open doors, but only character can keep them open." -Elihu Burrit
Drink Of the Week
Absinthe Flip Recipe
Ingredients
1/2 oz Absinthe (Deva)
1/2 oz Cointreau
2 tsp Lemon juice
1 Egg
1 tsp Sugar
Nutmeg Mixing Instruction
Shake ingredients well with ice. Strain into a prechilled Delmonico glass. Sprinkle nutmeg on top.
Direct Mail in the reverse mortgage leads, senior life insurance, and annuity fields differ substantially from Internet leads.
While both types of leads collect information about the consumer and establish a relationships with the customer prior to the first face to face meeting, the senior market is different from younger audiences in significant way.
Many seniors are uncomfortable with the internet or just plain internet illiterate and prefer to us the mail. we can summarize the advantage by pointing out a few things here:
Direct Mail can effectively target the zip codes, sectional centers, cities, and states you work in
Eligible seniors tend to distrust or be unfamiliar with the Internet
Direct Mail marketing pieces can shift consumer perception about your products
Postcard direct mail campaigns campaigns are to add to your marketing mix.
When reverse mortgage agents implement direct mail lead campaigns with a reliable source they have a great opportunity to get exclusive reverse mortgage leads.
A toy company based in Plano, TX produces and markets Queetles. These are furry little battery operated toys that are produced without any child labor. The company seems to be starting off on the right foot. No child labor is used in production of the toys.
The president of the company has been very strict about this requirement and went through more than 20 contract manufacturers before finding one that satisfied their specific need.
This is a good example of a company that take corporate social responsibility seriously.
The books and toys that are delivered to the public are designed to appeal to young children and to give parents an opportunity to bond with their children through stories and playtime.
The product seems interesting and with the right investment could be the next big thing.
One interesting area that could be significantly affected by this is the reverse mortgage market. If the government continues to prop up subprime loans and prop up the banks (and preventing the market from performing necessary corrections, home values should stabilize and possibly even rise in the coming future.
Reverse mortgage lead generation companies, which watch changes in the marketplace and legislation closer than anyone other than the lenders themselves. Know that this will benefit the loan officers that are in the field trying to make living allowing seniors to access their equity, before there is no equity there. For many seniors, a regular forward mortgage is out of the question, because they cannot make the additional payment on their fixed incomes. Rising costs and the need for medical care have them trapped in a bad situation. Even though this does not, by any means, mean that all seniors are in the same position; many seniors need to have alternative presented to them that will allow them to keep their homes for the rest of their natural lives.
Unfortunately, FHA Modernization Bill looks like a bad piece of legislation for the reverse mortgage business. This looks like the work of the AARP and other senior associations that lately have worked to the disfavor of many seniors. This legislation essentially hurts the loan officers and feeds the banks, while creating good press for the senior organizations. In the end, it looks like the senior organizations are making a play for the reverse mortgage leads generation market for themselves.
Seniors should be looking to take advantage of the low interest rates now and access the cash for other use before the equity in their homes falls more. If you are a reverse mortgage loan officer, you should use direct mail reverse mortgage lead solutions. The more seniors you reach today the better your business will be, otherwise you will be working for the bank for free.
My friends and I have been around real estate for a long time and have networked with a number of professionals that have used the direct mail lead services. I thought I would check them out and look into the company history and then I made a test call to them to see what they offered and find out how effective their products were. I ended making a purchase for my cousin for a X-Mas present and he turn the $2,500 investment (my gift) into $620,000 for eight senior couples who had less than 50% LTV in their homes or better (so he said). He had a great return on my investment. It's funy how that works - my coin his profits! On top of that the seniors were happy with the service the professional service that the received and the time that he spent with them.
So, I asked him. How much did you make? He said a fair rate for the 2 months he spent working with the clients. He also said his boss made just as much and the mortgage company would make the most, because it would sell the loan at a premium, because it was guaranteed. Then he changed the subject to the loan system itself and coming legislation.
I'm going to paraphrase what he was telling me:
Keep in mind, many of the most popular reverse mortgage products that are out there are guaranteed by the federal government and lately the lobbyists seem to be deciding that the banks should make all the money and the individual agents that are on a per dollar basis exposed to the most risk (due to the long time it takes to navigate the government required loan process that includes consultations.) So, essentially, it takes 5 to ten times as long close a reverse mortgage.
Most forward mortgage brokers out there, are used to a quick fix and a customer that understands there product. This is not the case with reverse mortgage and those guys will naturally weed themselves out and only the professional senior advisers will remain. Have of the forward mortgage guys will resort to buying cheap reverse mortgage leads from some company that doesn't even understand the market, then they will get frustrated and quit
Mortgages and the credit crisis are at the core of everything that will happen in this country for the next several years. There is really no two ways about it. I have found that it is useful to discuss these matters with people in a wide variety of discipline and professional field before coming to an opinion of my own.
This last rate cut by the Federal Reserve combined with the move to shore up the investment of JP Morgan as it raided Bear Stearns is absolutely frightening. I would recommend that any one who has them time, the interest and the money, to invest in a good insider trading tool like the ones offered by Insider Score. This tool lets you look into the guts of SEC filings and see what the insiders think about their company.
The idea that the government would allow the Bear Stearns transaction to occur without allowing the market to respond was terrible for the shareholders that were locked out of the process. The banks were the sole beneficiaries of this action. A sell off on businesses that made bad investments is a correction. The government guaranteed the riskiest part of the Bear portfolio and hand the the treasure trove over to JP Morgan. for the good of the market. This was for the good of the bankers and a few insiders and really no one else. Especially, no the $2/share shareholder, that had no ability to negotiate anything. What would bear have been worth if the market had responded to the guaranteed subprime holding portfolio? Not, $2/share. Not by a long shot.
The Bear Stearns name is worth more than $236M dollars - not to mention the trade connections that the professionals staff had developed and maintained. The shareholders got robbed.
My hats off to JP Morgan. I wonder when the shareholder's will sue? Good luck, suing the Fed.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank on Thursday announced new legislation that represents Capitol Hill’s latest attempt to stem a significant rise in mortgage foreclosures. Under the proposed plan, the Federal Housing Administration would receive $300 billion — $150 billion over each of the next two years — to insure and guarantee refinanced mortgages that have been significantly written down by mortgage holders and lenders.
The bill establishes terms for what it calls “homeownership retention mortgages,” otherwise called short-refis by most in the industry. Lenders and investors would be required to write off principal for first mortgages while second lienholders would likely be extinguished entirely under the terms of Frank’s plan.
The tentative bill outlines a very complex set of requirements surrounding who can get a “retention mortgage” and who can not.
In general, however, borrowers must be underwater enough that a write-down in principal to a first mortgage is required, and must also qualify for the FHA-insured short-refi under traditional circumstances — that is, at market rate, full doc, fixed-rate only, debt-to-income under 40 percent. Further, the monthly payment borrowers would receive under the “retention mortgage” would need to be less than their existing mortgage payment.
Borrowers obtaining a “retention mortgage” would also see the government put a soft second lien on the property, in order to establish a 3 percent “exit fee” if the borrower sells or refinances the home. Further, the second lien would establish a scaled “shared profits” model if the borrower manages to sell or refinance within five years.
Under the terms outlined by the bill, existing lenders would receive no more than 85 percent of a property’s currently-appraised value as payment in full for their existing lien position.
But it’s second liens that would appear to be the most pressing issue here, in spite of the fact that many lenders have begun reserving for losses on seconds at 100 percent.
Tanta at the Calculated Risk blog opines: The draft bill says that “The Secretary (of HUD) may take such actions as may be necessary and appropriate to facilitate coordination between the holders of the existing senior mortgage and any existing subordinate mortgage to comply with the requirements.” It doesn’t say what necessary actions might be needed to force second lien holders to roll over and die–threats? bullying? shunning at cocktail parties?–but that’s likely to be a sticking point given current second lien holder behavior.
This is a recession - and there simply aren't too many levers left for the Fed to reverse the trend. Interest rates really cannot be lowered. TIPS (a form of security) are a bargain, because of the rates as they exist and the hedge against inflation they provide.
The heavy investment in the housing sector represents investment in non-productive goods. Houses don;t produce anything for the economy, households do (and businesses do). Homes for many are a bad investment by comparison to many other, because in the absence of inflation homes do not increase in value and mortgage payment are mostly interest. Mortgages are the pledge of death.
The mortgage foreclosure crisis has caused a drop in cities' revenues, a spike in crime, more homelessness and an increase in vacant properties, a survey of elected local officials out today shows.
About two-thirds of 211 officials surveyed by the National League of Cities reported an increase in foreclosures in their cities in the past year, according to the online and e-mail questionnaire. A third of them reported a drop in revenues and an increase in abandoned and vacant properties and urban blight.
About one in five subprime mortgages made in the last two years are likely to go into foreclosure, according to a report released yesterday, ending the dream of homeownership for millions of Americans.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke publicly urged lenders yesterday to forgive a portion of the principal owed on loans. Bernanke insists the time has come for banks to consider this tactic if they want to prevent foreclosures.
This is bad news for many, but will create opportunity for many others. The level of equity in home is at a 50 year low, which makes it difficult to sell out of a property, particularly for those who recently purchased, and many people will not be able to cover the closing cost for a second time in such a short period.
The economy is absolutely going to experience major problems over the next four years and possibly beyond. This is a recession that could could resemble the recession of the 70s - and it is hard to see a silver lining around this cloud, that for many people will offer misery. The Federal Reserve is called before Congress to provide reports on what the economy is doing and how the Fed is acting in the best interest of the nation. (Or something like that .) The decision that the Fed makes will and do effect everyone, in fact the decision made at the Fed have global implications. The main stream media always covers this event and play snippets on TV. The should just play the whole thing. The Federal Reserve decisions are as important as any election. The decisions and actions of the Federal reserve can make or break any political initiative, because the government always needs money to do things.
Below are links to articles from the last few years where the Fed is letting us know how thing are going to be and how programs are working. These are articles and not the actual Fed reports, but it makes one wonder about the clarity of the communication being provided and if the main stream media is competent in evaluating the facts before editor release the articles. Keep in mind that economists are trained to see the big picture and, one would assume, that the Congress would be asking questions of the Federal Reserve about long-term (5 to 20 to 50-year) implications of the current conditions.
These article below seem to indicated contradicting information or simply misleading information and, whether by intent or ignorance, the information is not helpful, if it fails to communicate the critical and dire truths about our state. The headlines below seem to contradict each other as do the articles, which indicates a grand problem in communication and that Bernanke of the Federal Reserve is being far (very far) from "transparent". Indeed it seems as though a good bit of double-speak is underway. The man is in a difficult position, indeed.
(For your convenience, these articles will open in a separate window.)
There shouldn't be this kind of confusion on a matter. when direct questions are asked about quantitative issues. While it is understandable for their to be disagreement on what the values mean, either the questions are not being answered in a straightforward manner or the wrong people are asking the question - what is the point of these kangaroo proceedings. How can the legislature and the citizenry assess the efficacy and implications of the Fed decisions if the agency in charge of making the decisions and analyzing the data associated with those decision is playing hide and seek with the information.
My take on it is this: With low interest rates (and the interests rates are low compared to 20 years ago) the economy should be roaring. But is not. This is not a bull market and the consumer driven portion of the economy is facing a real threat from lack of credit. Many households, particular those who have the sub-prime loans, will find their purchasing power further diminished over the next two years and the credit that they need to function under the system we have now wil be injured for 7 years.
Banks will be tentative about issuing credit. Banks need to be tentative, however, banks revenues are largely derived from repayment of debts issued. The banks need to issue debts, yet the interest rates as low as they are in a period of economic uncertainty and the recession that we are in (the signs are there) will make the risk vs. benefit associated with the lending, increasingly less rational. There is less to gain and the same amount to risk.
Neither the Democratic and Republican candidates are making a the economy the central issue. The Dems want to add a new entitlement program and reduce the amount of capital moving through the top of the economy, by rescinding tax-cuts and extending more healthcare to the public. (Which represent a great platform for acquiring the working class vote) and the Republican want to keep on marching down the same path.
A plan to issue a moratorium on foreclosure, simply delays the inevitable. If the government steps in to perform the bailout it encourages the same bad behavior to happen again and again and again. Take the example of the airlines and auto industry - the bankruptcy protections, negative feedback interruptions issued have not resulted in solutions to the underlying problems. The fed has performed a massive bailout for a number of industries by reducing interest rates an creating cheap money. The consequences of cheap money are what the Fed and the government are trying to contend with now and contribute to the rise in consumer prices for commodity goods and imported goods as well. Were it not for Wal-Mart many people would buy far less than they presently do - unfortunately Wal-Mart also helps them lose their jobs.
Something has to be done, but the somethings that are being suggested look like actions that will make the problem more severe when it fully returns. And, it will.
The last several months have brought bad news for the mortgage industry, primarily due to the subprime implosion, that threatens to take a few institutions out with it over the next few years.
Senator Clinton is talking about a moratorium on home foreclosures that would have some interesting market effects. I doubt however that it would do anything that would lead to a recovery in the housing market. A moratorium would only delay the inevitable and would probably do very little for seniors who are in home with very little equity and home owner who overstated there income to get into the property anyway. This is the group that represents the greatest problem.
There could be some good new however for reverse mortgage lenders and senior citizens that own homes with equity. The moratorium will slow the fall in the housing prices that always accompanies waves of foreclosures.
There are many companies out there that specialize in generating targeted mailings to the senior market and many of them have simple websites that have not been updated because they are so busy connecting senior homeowner 62+ years old with mortgage brokers that can help them generate tax-free income out of the equity in there home.
Targeted mailing is still a great business, particularly with older customer who actually read their mail and spend little time on the internet.
The Motley Fool is looking for the positives in this transition, they are advising that people stick it out and the article briefly discusses the impact of adverse feedback loops in the economy. The idea behind an adverse feedback loop is that a downward spiral can become self sustaining if there is a sell off in the markets combined with negative investor sentiment regarding making new investments. Kudos to the Fools.
If you want some more bearish news follow these links:
If I am a long term investor, I am going to look at Brazil, Russia, India and China and plan an attack on the new economy. Particularly with China, because China is a developing an educated professional service class, a powerful military industrial complex with the engineers to support it, is not currently engaged in any wartime action that threaten its ability to produce and distribute, and still has the cheap labor that is necessary to put other countries out of business. Remember, jobs were going to Mexico, until China got on board and was able to produce and ship products into Mexico with the same and often better quality.
China is building the infrastructure for a new world and is allowing the wealth to spread throughout its country and still has it currency artificially held down in value. China can make itself wealthier by selling off US securities and then unpegging its own currency and trading in that. China has the ability to become a dominant producer and a dominant engine of growth regionally. There is nothing better than an production based economy - long term it trumps a consumption based economy in most scenarios, because production eliminates debt, whereas consumption creates it.
By the way, get into commodities or commodity related markets rel="nofollow". Things that keep on selling and represent strong positions for the future. If you aren't in a position to invest in the commodities market - learn about them and understand why the money goes there and what they are. People will still need to eat and replace essential consumables. There is opportunity in these markets - look at the performance of gold over the last 10 years. The commodities markets are rising despite all the signs of US economic slowdown and this creates some problem in doing good analysis of the future, but betting against commodity markets in the near term looks like a bad bet.
As the laws are today and with the pressure there is in the US to remain competitive by developing young people with advanced degrees, it appears that there is room in the market for more accreditation institutions, particularly those that have experience professionals that are qualified to assess the ability of a school to teach.
The problem is that most school accreditation is built around how much can a school pay as opposed to basing the accreditation on how much can a school offer. All schools that back up the public representations about the institution with course and instructors that can deliver the product. The key is the educational product. Schools that can prove that they can provide the educational product should be accredited.
I recently spoke with the director of a new accreditation agency that aims to reduce the cost of school accreditation, while still verifying that the school provides the service it advertises. This is a real business and has collected a group of professionals who are not motivated by personal gain, but are motivated to help more American become educated professionals prepared to provide services in the new economy and stem the tide of job outsourcing in the United States. The value that this company offers will increase as time goes on, because they plan to move into the arena of financial aid and all schools approved through US Accreditation will be eligible for federal funding that will help increase the enrollment of the schools. This seems like a win-win for education. This is a new agency, but one that I will follow based on the sincerity of its ownership.
The US Department of Education is not in the business of accrediting school, which is surprising to say the the least, however, the private market has demonstrated a clear interest in doing this important work. This opens the door for accrediting institution to set up agencies and help the department of delivering the key product in its arsenal federal funds - our schools and students need to be funded. Although there is no magic bullet solution to the accreditation and education woes our country experiences, it is an important matter for anyone concerned about the welfare of the nation.
If you, your child, or a friend are going to attend a
If you are not afraid of recession, don't worry you'll get to experience one anyway. Whether you work pouring concrete patios or selling HDTV sets it will find you and let you know when it is here. The next president will inherit a recession and will have less tools available to correct the problem.
Can interest rates be lowered? Yes, but that will make the currency weaker and make the US treasuries less attractive as investment instrument. When the Fed Cuts rates it hurts the economy in a number of other places and just pushes the pain down the road.
Get Rich Quick Schemes. It would seem that the climate is right for get rich quick schemes to be be all over the market. As 75% of American households are currently considering a home-based business. This is not much of an indicator really, but more will take the leap if they lose there job or see that there is outsourcing in the tea leaves. There will be more incentive than ever to stop the pain. The problem is that fr most people a home base business, means a local business and unfortunately for most people that is a weakness. The get rich scheme manufactures will have a field day offering a quick fix with only an $400.00 investment or telling people that all they need is this $40.00 info pamphlet or to come to my seminar to get started.
Monster.com and Careerbuilder.com: Monster.com and Careerbuilder.com are ramping up their advertising - they can see the writing is on the wall and this is where there company makes the most money. Monster and Career Builder do far better when people are losing jobs and can't find jobs. When there is sever dislocaiton in the job market Monster and CareerBuilder will be king.
The video posted below, while somewhat grainy provides, commentary that is helpful to anyone who is starting a business with a web-based component. The speaker, Willie Crawford, discusses the importance of personal networking in order to gain valuable marketshare.
The speaker provides some insight from personal experience and how you can benefit from attending seminars on subject matter that are relevant to your present of prospective business. It is a firmly established reality that personal networks yield valuable positive returns on the investment and are one of the best tools for staying current in various markets and learning about inside trends in different industries. Additionally, in this age of private venture capital and private placement IPO's the netwroked individual simply has more opportunities and and avenues to generate the funding necessary to develop big ticket products.
One of the keys to entreprenuerial success is meeting and interacting with like-minded individuals - people who can share your vision for the future and who want to work with you to create the necessary system to carry out the key functions of the business.
Sometimes the best next job to get is the one you give yourself. Or, so I am telling myself now. I've been self-employed for the last 3 years and I find that it is extremely rewarding when the paydays finally arrive. One of the lessons that I have learned and continue to learn is to explore opportunities by siezing them first. A day wasted is a day lost.
To work on my business, the first thing I had to do was clear the time to be busy on a new project. This involved closing out existing work and preparing myself to go without income for a period of time. I made sure to let my family know what I was gearing up to do and then jumped. It is an act of faith. All the preparatory steps are just that - preparations to justify my faith.
The last few months have been a little of a challenge. Primary objectives have included: identifying necessary resources, making phone calls, doing some dry run sales cales to guage market interest in the project, and realizing that this entire project would be a lot easier with more cash. On the other side, I take some inspiration from Steve Wozniak who said on recent program that sometimes it better to have less to start with because it will make you more efficient in your methods. You have to assume that, based on his track record, he would know.
This week is important to me. There will be a combination of cold calls and systems diagramming to prepare for my first implementation. My goal is to sell business services to business customers and as such I need to be ready to roll from the moment I contact them in orer to close the sale. They need to know that a system is waiting for them.
I've made some projections about potential expenses and have examined the public operations of large, successful firms in my particular field and have come to the conclusion that the market is not full and more importantly that the barriers to entry wil remain low, because the service is simple, practical, and always in high demand. Most importantly, it is a service I enjoy providing and the work itself creates additional opportunities and relationships.
"Do not worry about your difficulties in Mathematics. I can assure you mine are still greater." -Albert Einstein
The bigger the problems you try to solve the greater the rewards are when you try to solve them. Think about the vacuum cleaner and washing machine. Although cleaning a floor and washing clothes seemed like small problems, they were in fact massive problems, because of the frequency with which the problems occured. The inventor/entrepreneurs who solved these problem made fortunes and created thousands of new opportunities for other business with the activity and process innovaiton that they introduced.
You should always be looking to start your own business even if you have a job. The harder you look the more likely you are to find the business that puts you ver the top. Consider custom manufacturing and visit the sites of custom manufacturers to examine their offerings. If you have an idea for a product that is feasible a good custom manufacturer can make your dreams become a reality.
You have probably noticed that the market for custom manufacturing has increased as products become more sophisticated, more unique, more in demand, or al of the above. There are many niches markets that depend on the custom manufaturing sectr to provide them with the solutions they need to the big problems that entrepreneurs try to resolve.
Despite the constant media attention and public outcry about the decline in US manufacturing, the US remains a manufacturing leader and more importantly is the leading outsourcing manufacturer. A great deal of the profit of overseas businesses does indeed return to the US by way of the American firms that mange ovrseas operations and provide the financing to see that those operations are sufficiently capitalized and connected to provide quality units in a timely manner.
Take a look at www.export.gov and look through some of the listed opportunities and see if you can generate some ideas about how you could fill the order. Then go talk to some people that you know and see if you can assemble the right team to manage the activities for you. There are some companies that will help you manage you import/export operations overseas and work with you to find the manufacturers or service providers you need to make you business competitive.
For the third consecutive year, the number of households with more than one million dollars ($1MM) in net worth (excluding primary residence) has risen, according to new research released today by TNS Financial Services, a division of TNS, one of the world’s largest market information companies... Unlike 2004, year to date stock market growth did not fuel the increase in millionaire households. The Standard & Poors 500 and NASDAQ posted no significant gains during the time period measured, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted only a 4% gain. In fact, while ownership of stocks and bonds is up (72% of millionaires own individually held stocks and bonds, up from 63% in 2003), the average balance invested is down. Ownership of mutual funds is flat and the average balance also fell, dropping about 20% (mean among mutual fund owners in 2005 was $283,000 versus $355,000 in 2004.)
TNS found that the majority of the affluent households were earning from active reinvestment of capital.
Millionaire and affulent households are becoming more and more common. And, although many people have complaints that the quality of modern life is diminishing with so much government intervention, long commutes, and often long work hours, the evidence seems to indicate otherwise. A great example of this is easy to see everyday. Look at all the Jiffy Lubes, Chili's, and Target's and then take a look at how few people change their own oil and filters, brown bag it to work, or make their own clothes from scratch. There has beena notable increae in life's little luxuries. Even in poor areas you see an alarming number of working automobiles, name brand clothing, and other acouturements that indicate a certain level of wealth in almost all comunities.
There are many steps each of us can take to change this. One of the first is to develop knowledge about the systems that are necessay to increase ones net worth and then apply ourselves to activities that will help us make that move. If you fell that you're in a rut get out.
